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GROWING MAJORITY DECLARED
Impressed by a bunch of pieces mentioning the vast and overwhelming number of conservative pundits who’ve lately declared they were wrong about the Iraq war—including Andrew Sullivan, William F. Buckley Jr, Francis Fukuyama, George F. Will, George F. Buckley Jr, Francis Sullivan, William F. Will, Andrew Fukuyama, Francis F. Will, George Fukuyama, William Sullivan, Andrew F. Buckley Jr, George Sullivan, Francis F. Buckley Jr, William Fukuyama, and Andrew F. Will—Australian Saddamite Phillip Adams writes:
A growing majority of conservative pundits—from William F. Buckley to young Francis Fukiyama—agree that the invasion has proved to be one of the more catastrophic mistakes in military history.
Since you’re paying so much attention to Fukuyama’s opinions these days, Phillip, it might do to spell his name correctly. Gateway Pundit and Victor Davis Hanson offer corrective views.
Funny how when conservatives, and I don’t include Sullivan in that category even from 5 years ago, break ranks on an issue how they always seem to be able to get airtime on the MSM all of a sudden when they were never given airtime before when they were toeing the conservative party line on an issue.
Posted by andycanuck on 2006 03 14 at 12:20 PM • permalinkI agree. I would further add that to have overthrown the Taliban and Saddam, and then to have left Afghanistan and Iraq completely to their own devices would have resulted in bloodshed on a much greater scale, and in the grip of a genuine chaos of the sort that would have ultimately ended only with more despotism (and possibly an expanded, and completely unopposed, role for Iran).
It is frequently said that generals are always fighting the last war. Our strategic “pragmatists” seem always to be denouncing the last effort at achieving peace. Bush is not Wilson, and I believe his view of the possibilities for nation-building is more restrained, and is motivated by a desire to do the honorable thing: having destroyed the (admittedly horrible)governments of two countries, he sees it as our responsibility to give the people a chance at something better. He - or rather, they - may fail. But all the slick realpolitic, all the ineffectual sword-brandishing of the Clinton years didn’t save us from 9/11, and sweeping one set of tyrants from power without attempting to alter the conditions that led to their rise is about as useful as dealing with a cockroach infestation by stepping on one insect at a time.
Incidentally, I admired William F. Buckley immensely when I was younger, and his contributions to the American conservative movement are undeniable; however, his prose style - always somewhat baroque - strikes me over the last few years as having become rather clotted, and the coherence of his reasoning is not as sure as it was. Which is not, at all, to say that, for those reasons, he is necessarily wrong on this issue; he may be right, but I don’t think he’s made a convincing case.
#2 RebeccaH
In other words, these are self-important blowhards who talked a tough game until the going got messy and drawn out. Now they want to take their ball and go home. P*****s.
Buckley (and Will, for that matter) has been anti-interventionist his entire life. He was never much in favor of the Iraq war, as far as I know, so his objections are nothing new. Sullivan has never been a “conservative” as such, and his sudden switch to opposition of Bush’s policies, foreign or domestic, is based entirely on Bush’s opposition to gay marriage. His support for Bush was mostly lukewarm to begin with, and once the shock of 9/11 wore off, he merely reverted to form.
Posted by Spiny Norman on 2006 03 14 at 01:48 PM • permalinkHmmm.
I think ultimately it’s because a lot of conservatives don’t think muslims or Islam can be reformed and that we’re wasting our time and money trying.
*shrug* I think Iraq is worth continuing as much as we can. But I can’t say that I disagree with the above statement either.
Posted by memomachine on 2006 03 14 at 01:52 PM • permalinkOne conversation I will always remember is with an old friend in about 1990.
He had just been on holidays. And where had he been?
Vietnam.
I did a double take when he told me. As long as I could remember it was the biggest shithole on earth where nobody was going. As brutal as Iraq with starvation to boot. By 1990 this guy is spending his valuable holiday time in the place.
Now, loads of people are going and nobody thinks twice about it. Everyone I know who has been has loved the place.
We will all go through this moment in about 15 years (probably less) when a friend tells us he or she is going to Iraq for their holidays. Soon after, everyone will go. It will eventually become a desirable location, with friendly and largely secular people (i.e. you will be able to get a beer and our wives won’t need the Batman suit), good weather and plenty for those interested in ancient history. Once it is safe, I would go for sure.
Lesson: these problems will NOT last forever, and will end quicker if they are confronted.
Posted by Flying Giraffe on 2006 03 14 at 02:09 PM • permalink#7: Spot-on re Buckley - he opposed the war from the start, so the changing of his mind was when he thought that it might have been worthwhile after all, and let’s get out soon too!
But Sullivan’s support for Bush was anything but lukewarm for a long time there, and he is, gay marriage aside, pretty conservative.
Don’t worry about Aldo Borgu being Brendan Nelson’s new Chief of Staff. Thanks to Peter Cosgrove, the Chief of Defence Role is now much stronger and effectively reports directly to the PM, who is effectively his own Minister for Defence. Even Robert Hill half-jokingly referred to himself as the “Minister Assisting the Prime Minister on Defence Matters”.
Guys like Hugh White and Aldo Borgu notwithstanding, we’re still getting M-1 tanks, a hardened and networked (HardNet) Army, not one but two large amphibs (hey, let’s just end the fiction and call them carriers), three Aegis air warfare destroyers, heavy lift aircraft and long-range weapons . . . . . that doesn’t sound much like Kim Beazley’s, Paul Dibb’s and Hugh White’s “Defence of Australia” force of old.
Posted by Oafish and Infantile on 2006 03 14 at 04:37 PM • permalinkOh yeah, and Peter Leahy is odd-on to be our next Chief of Defence Force - proof that they didn’t break the mold when they made Peter Cosgrove.
Posted by Oafish and Infantile on 2006 03 14 at 04:39 PM • permalinkI think we should follow the Israeli and Indian example.
build a partition.
Its not like the’re grateful for our efforts.
Posted by knuckleheadwatch on 2006 03 14 at 05:35 PM • permalinkI guess if Adams grows much more he will soon be a unit of mass approaching majority status
Posted by Margos Maid on 2006 03 14 at 05:59 PM • permalinkThe idea of Sullivan ‘returning to form’ is nonsense. Sullivan’s criticism of Bush before 9/11 had everything to do with the fiscal largesse of successive Administrations including the incumbent’s. Further, his criticism vis-a-vis the war has had to do with its prosecution by certain members, Rumsfeld in particular. Criticisms held in common with other proponents of this said war, Hitchens, for instance. Criticisms I largely agree with. And its part of the honesty that appeals to me about the pro-war in Iraq side. The last thing I want to see is this side becoming as partisan and simple minded as Krugman or Pilger.
That Adams has lumped them all together should be a lesson and a warning to you all.
Posted by dover_beach on 2006 03 14 at 06:34 PM • permalinkLeftieLatteLover- did you follow the links? It will save us a lot of effort and space if you do. In this post, Tim has given you some ‘alternative viewpoints to Fisk.’
Posted by daddy dave on 2006 03 14 at 06:50 PM • permalinkBret Stephens neatly answers Fukuyama over at WSJ.
Posted by Kyda Sylvester on 2006 03 14 at 06:58 PM • permalinkPhilly crouches over his keyboard whispering to himself “Vietnam, Vietnam, oh god Vietnam”......
At least 1 of his hands isnt visible.Posted by thefrollickingmole on 2006 03 14 at 07:28 PM • permalink#9
10 or so years ago, I was stunned to hear that an ancient colleague had holidayed in Lebanon in the 1960s.By the time I was old enough to take an interest in international news Beirut had become a byword for bombs and bloodshed.
However, by all accounts Lebanon and Beirut in particular are beginning to regain a reputation for being a beautiful Eastern Mediterranean vacation spot.
Flying Giraffe is right about Vietnam and, I believe, Iraq too one day.
—Nora
Posted by The Thin Man Returns on 2006 03 14 at 08:10 PM • permalinkyeah but the’re still not grateful, Does Kuwait have a “thank you day” ? Does afghanistan? are these people really worth the lives of our best?
Posted by knuckleheadwatch on 2006 03 14 at 08:38 PM • permalinkThe key point is that Adams is DEAD WRONG! We are WINNING, yes there is the current argy bargy over establishing the next administration in Iraq but we have seen this twice before and it has been resolved. Now it looks like Jaafari might get the boot for someone more effectual and Talabani is moving things forward ( Surely he will win the Nobel Peace Prize, otherwise I might start taking a leaf out of the motoons crowd and start rioting myself) on actually resolving the government issue.The stats over at Brookings institute continue to show lots of the important stats going in the right direction, some dramatically so. About 18 months ago the terrorists ruled Fallujah, the slums of Baghdad and Al Anbar Province. Now they are hiding like rats with more and more Iraqi’s informing on them, even actively killing them. The Iraqi Army is going from strength to strength. Just think too if Jaafari is useless, look at the progress made with a useless PM, what will it be with a can-do PM? We just need this government issue settled and its back on the forward path. Talabani WILL achieve this. As for its a Civil war, how does an Al Quaeda attack on a shrine (ie foriegners) and then retaliation from a mob taking orders from Tehran and representing 0.00001% of the Iraqi population equal a Civil War? Constantly the Left look at the tiny minority and extrapolate that to be the majority position. Rather look at the extreme provocation the Iraqi’s have suffered and still the “silent majority” hold the line well wise to the hopelessly obvious attempt at provoking them.
Anyway preaching to the converted so I’ll shut up nowThe question I and others on this site should be asking ourselves is why am I posting this here and not writing something similar to editors of major newspapers and getting this out into the mainstream?
Posted by the nailgun on 2006 03 14 at 09:18 PM • permalink#24 CBL
The point is not to earn their gratitude, the point is to stop them from becoming an existential threat to civilization. The Western Allies after the 2nd World War reshaped Germany in a way that brought benefits to the German population in their power because they realised that they could not risk allowing the old Germany to continue. They certainly didn’t do it because they had any great fondness for Germans. Something similar is true now of the Islamic Near East.
Richard Perle, Daniel Pipes and Bill Kristol are three more NeoConers who have now betrayed Iraqis with their talk of it being too soon for real democracy to flourish in Iraq.
Daniel Pipes actually said there was a “strategic advantage” to the US for civil war in Iraq.
Wankers.
Of course Dick(head) Adams is going to gloat. He was right, there were no WMDs in Iraq (despite the illusions) and there has been tens of thousands of civilian casualties.
But his gloating is not being countered, in Australia, by the columnists who cheerleaded the Iraq War effort. Writers like Miranda Devine and Piers Ackerman, etc, have gone far too quiet on the situation in Iraq.
Posted by LeftieLatteLover on 2006 03 14 at 09:41 PM • permalinkWell, I for one don’t know how I would get through the day without quoting Francis Fukuyama {/sarc}
Let alone without constant reference to Smirky Bill K from the Weekly Standard {/gag}
Posted by richard mcenroe on 2006 03 14 at 09:47 PM • permalinkI get the feeling FlabbyLattyFlapper has been reading his/her/its Alinsky.
The Left doesn’t owe you an honest dialogue, guys, but it’s a legitimate goal to get you to waste your time with demands to respond to them.
Posted by richard mcenroe on 2006 03 14 at 10:21 PM • permalinkDaniel Pipes actually said there was a “strategic advantage” to the US for civil war in Iraq.
You’ve brought this up multiple times now, so you must be thinking it’s, umm, meaningful or something, though there’s really just one response: So what? Saying that X yields a strategic advantage doesn’t imply he’s in favour of creating the necessary conditions, nor that he actually advocates doing so. And almost beside the point, creating strategic advantages may also be a non-starter on the political front (as it surely is, in this particular case).
PW, the whole idea of democraticisng Iraq was to get rid of Saddam and create a unified nation where Sunni, Shiite, Kurds could live, work and enjoy the fruits of a western style democracy, not civil war, and breaking the country up into three regions.
Pipes now comes out and says crap like a civil war is an advantageous to US interests because Iraqis will be “shooting at each other” instead of at US soldiers.
I don’t want Iraqis shooting at our troops, either, but of course the lamestream media leftiods are going to leap all over comments like that from Pipes, adding to the tide of dissent against this great cause.
This idea of bailing out of Iraq due to civil war is pathetic. Pipes sounds more like a leftiod every day.
The Iraqi (just about there) leaders don’t think civil war is happening, or that it’s likely to happen.
So why does Pipes stick himself out there in the media talking it up like the chaos-loving leftiods? Disappointed is all, sad for Iraqis who look to us for support.
Posted by LeftieLatteLover on 2006 03 14 at 11:28 PM • permalinkWe Aussies Americans, and Brits dont even need a wall we both have very good moats that can be defended.
Lock them out, turn off their communications, satellites and transmitters.
Reform can only come from within
Posted by knuckleheadwatch on 2006 03 14 at 11:35 PM • permalinkPosted by F* them Conservative on 2006 03 14 at 10:35 PM
I smell fresh troll.
I could be wrong. My allergies have been acting up.
Posted by Andrea Harris, Administrator on 2006 03 14 at 11:50 PM • permalinkOh no Andrea - I have been on this site for a while and you can check my history - I dont agree that it was a military mistake - I am just sick of how ungrateful they are thats all.
GWB has given them a chance but they wont take it and all they do is bitch and moan about things.
Where is their Churchill? their Thatcher? , their Regan etc
Posted by knuckleheadwatch on 2006 03 14 at 11:54 PM • permalinkI have said before and say it again, to criticise Phillip Adams for his girth is neo-fattist and opens the door to attacks on any of us here for being short, warty, having big hairy noses or whatever.
On substance, note this from Phillip’s Oz piece:
The final death toll of Iraqis since the invasion? These days few people are willing to ridicule an estimate approaching 200,000. As journalist Robert Fisk says - and he has frequently visited the morgues to count the corpses - simply multiply this week’s body count by three years. Then add Fallujah.
wtf 200,000? Iraq Body Count is currently on
34-38,000.deaths
Note that a huge number of these deaths must be Iraqis wantonly killing other Iraqis, not Americans killing them. I gather Americans are trying to STOP Iraqis killing Iraqis#33 LLL
I think Daniel Pipes has been pessimistic about the prospects of Arab democracy for a very long time, so it’s not really fair to criticize him for being pessimistic now. Moreover, his is a reasonable point of view since he has good arguments for why Iraq is unlikely to be a success as a liberal democratic unitary state. I happen to think that there are reasonable arguments on the other side that are at least as compelling as those Pipes presents. I think we should be able to disagree with him without holding him him in contempt.
As far as there being a “strategic advantage” to a civil war in Iraq, it’s not likely that he thinks that is a ‘good’ result but he may very well think that if nothing else good comes out of the Iraq project (as he expects) then that at least would not be a result to the disadvantage of Western civilization.
percypup
wtf 200,000? Iraq Body Count is currently on 34-38,000. deaths
Note that a huge number of these deaths must be Iraqis wantonly killing other Iraqis, not Americans killing them. I gather Americans are trying to STOP Iraqis killing IraqisThere was a statistical analysis posted here once (or more likely, LGF) that determined the number of likely non-combatant Iraqis killed by the Coalition forces, genuinely innocent civilian casualties (yep, that typically militarese “collateral damage”), was slightly less than 1,000, give or take a hundred or so. The vast majority of Iraqi civilians killed have been by the so-called “insurgents” - the Saddamite holdouts, the al-Sadr thugs and the foreign jihadis.
It’s still a tragically high number, but nowhere near the nonsense vomited up by the “anti-war” Left.
Posted by Spiny Norman on 2006 03 15 at 12:37 AM • permalinkJust checking, F-them. Re: gratitude—personally, whenever people thank me I check my back for knives. At least with an ungrateful person you always know where you stand.
Posted by Andrea Harris, Administrator on 2006 03 15 at 12:52 AM • permalinkAndrea please forgive men but we had a TV show here on Mon Night showing all Aussiraqis (refugees/immigrants) moaning on about “civil war” the “occupation” for an eternity.
F*ed if id have any of them over for a Barbie - much less die for the miserable sods
Posted by knuckleheadwatch on 2006 03 15 at 12:57 AM • permalink?Where is their Churchill? their Thatcher? , their Regan etc
Do you mean this Regan or this one
Posted by Oafish and Infantile on 2006 03 15 at 02:15 AM • permalinkF*TC, respectfully, we do not “die” for the miserable sods. We “die” for an idea (insert Declaration of Independence here), and serve and fight against those who would gladly end our way of life. Then we rebuild their countries. The time we did not do that (WW1) we ended up with a worse problem. The time we cut and ran (Vietnam), millions more died. I’m sitting here under a family wall with pictures of all of us in uniform since 1918, 9 all told. Kind of cool. Grandpa H. looks great as a doughboy, but spent a year in hospital with influenza. Uncle W. dead training for Korea, after living through WW2. Brother T. wounded in Vietnam. We are not an extraordinary American family, this could be repeated in Oz, or NZ or Canada, UK, hell India. I believe this is the price we pay for living in the west, the greatest, freest, most prosperous civilization the world has known, even for all of its warts. And when we become lotus eating mandarins and stop doing it, the world will not be a pleasant place. Its not about “them”, its about us. (And if you think “they” are uniformly ungrateful, read the recent letter from the Iraqi mayor to the commander of the 3rd ACR.)
//testimonial rant
Posted by Vanguard of the Commentariat on 2006 03 15 at 02:17 AM • permalinkLLL’s idea (#27) that Adams held to the view in 2002/3 that no WMDs were in Iraq is worse then nonsense. It is a line now run by Krugman, and others, that the anti-war left argued just this point back then as well. But it is an argument you never encounter when you peruse the debates against the war in Iraq back then. Let us recall that one of the many arguments run by the anti-war brigade was that an invasion may in fact provoke the use of WMDs. Also, the recent NYT report of the confusion within the Iraqi armed forces as to the existence of the WMDs (orchestrated by Saddam’s campaign of misinformation) merely adds to the general confusion that rained outside of Iraq prior to the war. Are we now supposed to be believe that anti-war protesters knew more about WMDs in Iraq then senior officials in the Iraqi armed forces in 2002/3? Please!
P.S. Some of you may be interersted in following this issue as it has evolved from a recent article by Krugman, go here and here,here, here, and here.
Posted by dover_beach on 2006 03 15 at 03:12 AM • permalinkThanks Vanguard - and yes I agree with much of what you have said . I just look at recent iraqi immigrants to Australia and think - you’ve turned youre back on iraq - had free housing, medical and education, and still your bitter?
It just doens’t seem right.
But it also doesn’t seem right that the blacks freed from slavery don’t have a thank you day for the yankees.
and that the “band Aid” and “live 8” concerts for africa are run by electrified Celtic folk singers instead of Rap and RnB artists.
I guess thats juust the way things are. Sad.
Posted by knuckleheadwatch on 2006 03 15 at 04:26 AM • permalink#40 Andrea
Just remember a pat on the back is just checking for the soft patches for the knives as well!!!Posted by thefrollickingmole on 2006 03 15 at 04:28 AM • permalinkAndrea please forgive men but we had a TV show here on Mon Night showing all Aussiraqis (refugees/immigrants) moaning on about “civil war” the “occupation” for an eternity.
FtC, that’s because those are the only Iraqis who’ll get airtime from the leftoid MSM. Demonstrations against terrorism thousands of Iraqis stong don’t get a mention, while a few dozen of Sadr’s goons throwing a tantrum in the street lead the evening news. The words of any Iraqi willing to diss the Coalition are headline news, while thanks such as this are buried on the op-ed pages. Just look at all the airplay Cindy Sheehan gets despite being part of a vanishingly small minority of military parents.
Don’t believe what the MSM tells you. If you want to know how Iraqis really feel, read their blogs (Iraq the Model has a large blogroll) and the milblogs of our troops who interact with them on a daily basis.
I always figured we’d eventually get French Gratitude from the Iraqis. France esentially fought to enable Italy to unite in the War of 1859. Count Cavour, the Italian who was chief minister for the King of Piedmont who became first king of Italy commented on this that “Someday we will astonish the world with our ingratitude.” That’s what I expect. So I’m not counting on gratitude, a weak reed in international affairs. It would be nice, but I will not be surprised to see any of it in evidence now (and there is some) fade away like dew in the sun.
My view has always been that the Iraq Campaign was necessary for the War on Terror in order to begin the process of reforming the dyssfunctional political culture of the Arab/Muslim world. This is the real “root causes of terrorism” the left keeps harping on without having the wit to identify it. Even if one is determined to attribute terrorism to economic cause, it is the political culture that gives rise to the tyrants and despotic monarchs who bugger up the economies. Whe you’ve got kleptocrats ruling there’s not much left of the goodies for everybody else. It is the Iraqis’ (and Afghans’) good luck that their liberation coincides with our enlightened self-interest.
There were other reasons for it too. As I have posted on comment threads here before on the WMD issue, Saddam is a man so reckless, so greedy for power and wealth, that he started two wars to steal other peoples’ oil even without having nukes. What would he or his psychopathic sons have done once they got nukes? Well now we will never have to worry about that. That peace of mind alone should have justified the three-week war that ovethrew Saddam and destroyed the Ba’athist regime.
Incidentally, the predictions of Iraq as a tourist destination have already been overtaken by events, at least in Kurdistan. Also there is a housing boom going on there. Michael J. Totten has been reporting about it.
Posted by Michael Lonie on 2006 03 16 at 12:26 AM • permalink
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The Mid East has no shortage of failed societies held together by despotic leaders. Remove the despot and try to create a democratic style of government, and there’s initially going to be a vacuum created into which the most vile and violent elements will surely be drawn into. The kind of reconstruction that needs to happen will be incredibly slow and painful - anything worth while ain’t easy. What is easy is standing on the sidelines and taking pot shots at those willing to do the heavy lifting.