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WEATHER GOD
November 15, 2006—Australians will always remember it as Al Gore Day, when the magical environmentalist delivered unto us an historic coldening, just as he did in New York two years ago. Behold the Gore Effect:
Ski resort operators gazed at the snow in amazement. Parents took children out of school and headed for the mountains. Cricketers scurried from the MCG amid bullets of hail as Melburnians traded lunchtime tales of the incredible cold.
Yesterday, Antarctic winds produced snow across Victoria at levels as low as 400 metres, just two weeks before summer.
Chillmaster Al turned this sunburnt country into a winter wonderland:
Rejoice in Al’s reversal of global warming:
Further images here. Not everybody enjoyed Gore Day; a friend of mine, a usually mildly-spoken young mother of two, told me yesterday from Melbourne that her “f—-in’ toes turned blue” after an underdressed outdoor excursion. The Gore Effect was just as pronounced in Sydney, where Al appeared on morning television between snow-laden weather reports:
A goosepimply, teeth-chattering Sydney has another reason to shake its collective head at the weather gods today.
This morning’s recorded low temperature of 8.3 degrees is the coldest November minimum in more than a century.
Not since 1905 has a November day experienced such chill.
Please record your Gore Effect experiences in comments, before the inevitable loss of fingers due to frostbite.
UPDATE. The Effect spreads:
Snow has fallen in southern Queensland ...
The Bureau of Meteorology says the last time snow or sleet was reported this late in the year was in early October 1941.
I hope the unions invite him to their circle-jerk at the Melbourne Cricket Ground to be held soon. Nothing like a little rain on their parade.
Posted by curious george on 2006 11 15 at 10:28 PM • permalinkMeanwhile Al says that Australian and the U.S. are the Bonnie and Clyde of Global Warming.
Uh-we’re Clyde right?
Just under an inch of rain recorded yesterday morning, hailstorms missed me but everyone else nearby copped it. Overnight I had the fire roaring to halt the chill in the house.
To further increase rainfall in dry areas the Al Gore scarecrow has been proposed. (scroll down) I guess Paco Industries will be on to this one quick smart.
The last couple of weeks in Perth we’ve had the sort of heavy rain that used to fall in winter. And the last time it rained like that was back in January - y’know, summer.
Mother Gaia sure is having fun screwing with Al’s head.Posted by SwinishCapitalist on 2006 11 15 at 10:39 PM • permalinkYou sceptics are all wrong.
The weather man on ABC 702 said this morning that GW/CC was still incredibly valid and that the cold snap is just an aberration and in no way distorts the big picture. You little picture looking people.Another convert to the Global Warmening Religion is Paul Kent from the Sydney Daily Tele. HE WILL NOT HAVE YOU SCEPTICS ARGUING WITH HIM. HAVE YOU GOT THAT?
Not only does poor Paul think that GW is done and dusted, he reckons anyone who disagrees is a flat earther. These people are just so intolerant of a counter argument, which is, of course, based on even better science than the science they believe. So many closed minds, so arrogantly sure of themselves.
Link to Kent’s beliefs here:
Well, I’m sitting in Ohio wearing flannel sweat pants and a plaid flannel shirt (Mr. Blackwell can go to hell). I’m cold and I’m unsettled with the thought that I have to go outside and push three trash cans to the curb for the trash pick up tomorrow. And I know I will freeze my arse doing it.
So it warms my heart knowing the Aussies are also freezing their collective arses pushing trash cans to curbs. Assuming Aussies have trash cans. And trash pick up. And curbs.
Posted by wronwright on 2006 11 15 at 10:53 PM • permalinkI thought Americans had ‘asses’, not arses.
Posted by SwinishCapitalist on 2006 11 15 at 10:56 PM • permalink#14 Wheeliebins. Aussies have wheeliebins.
And here you’d freeze and get blown away.I thought Americans had ‘asses’, not arses.
Pecisely. I think wronwright has been spending too much time around this blog. Just the other day I saw him trying to sneak a 44 gallon drum of Vegemite across the border from Canada and I know he’s asked Santa for a cricket bat for Christmas.
Posted by Stop Continental Drift! on 2006 11 15 at 11:04 PM • permalinkWe’re winning the war on cultural imperialism, SCD!
Posted by SwinishCapitalist on 2006 11 15 at 11:10 PM • permalinkThe Gore Effect is real. The debate really is over now!
Posted by Paul Zrimsek on 2006 11 15 at 11:18 PM • permalinkSomeone made The Gorebot reverse cycle.
Posted by Infidel Tiger on 2006 11 15 at 11:21 PM • permalinkI note this morning at the commencement of Channel 9’s “Today” programme ‘Sunrises” competitor, that Karl Stephanovic made a jibe to his co-host that “I blame Al Gore” for the strange cold weather.
Hmmm what a remarkable coincidence, I suspect Tim has a new fan who doesn’t mind him giving “Sunrise” a bit of a clip around the ears.
Posted by the nailgun on 2006 11 15 at 11:22 PM • permalinkBTW, if you want a real catastrophe to worry about then you would do well to read this.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/14/science/14WAVE.html?_r=1&ref=science&pagewanted=all&oref=slogin
“, just two weeks before summer.” I will be the first to admit that Yojimbo’s are not fashion forward but doesn’t your summer/our winter start on December 21st or so?
Hate to be the wet blanket in the party but we are 8 to 10 degrees above average here in Tucson with temps in the mid 80’s for the rest of the week.
The kicker here is Gore cites any temperature extreme as supporting his pet cause. If its cold, its because of global warming. If its hot its global warming. If there’s a flood, its global warming. If there’s a drought, you guessed it, global warming. So he can’t lose, unless the weather stops completely and there is a windless, calm room-temperature lull year round with a light drizzle every day at 10am til 11am.
And then he can claim he fixed it with his movie. So he can check his lifetime honeydew list: 1. Invent internet B. Cure global warming III. Cure cancer.
Excelsior!!!!!!!!
More on tsunamis in Oz.
http://library.lanl.gov/tsunami/213/scheff.pdf
Tsunamis that travel 60 kilometers inland. That’s it, I’m moving to Kalgoorlie.
Perhaps we should encourage NASA to shoot Algore to Venus. In a couple of years, it should have cooled enough to be habitable. Then we can send colonists to oppress mother Venus and give mother Gaia a much needed respite.
Provided, of course, that we first send Algore to Mercury to start the terraforming process anew and prevent Venus from freezing solid.
Who needs Weyland-Yutani when you have the Gore-bot?
On the beautiful sub tropical SE Queensland in late spring today, we have galeforce winds and temperatures about 5-6 degrees below average.
This unseasonly cold weather followed a storm yesterday that ripped roof off a historic church and a lightning strike which destroyed the top of another church.
This proves definitively that Al Gore is Satan himself.
—Nora
Posted by The Thin Man Returns on 2006 11 16 at 12:15 AM • permalinkRadio National this morning rang an extended jokey piece on the cold snap by one of their regulars, complete with ‘Baby it’s cold outside’ soundtrack, etc., but not one mention of global warming. This isn’t just peevishness on my part: any report on the ABC of unseasonal hot weather is inevitably accompanied by dire allusions to greenhouse. This is a perfect case of the one-way-filter at work.
Gore effects: Welder’s doing a roaring trade. Brass Monkey’s less than impressed.
Posted by Infidel Tiger on 2006 11 16 at 12:16 AM • permalinkBonnie & Clyde better be careful—you don’t want to piss off the French:
http://tinyurl.com/y9orudPosted by andycanuck on 2006 11 16 at 12:18 AM • permalink#38 - Perhaps we should encourage NASA to shoot Algore… The rest is superfluous.
Posted by Infidel Tiger on 2006 11 16 at 12:19 AM • permalink#14 wronwright Assuming Aussies have trash cans. And trash pick up. And curbs.
Are you kidding. You’ve got to be Hercules to push these babies out to the kerb.
I did 3 of ‘em last night. Yes. Freezing. Howling gale. What this earth needs is some GLOBAL WARMINGBTW, shouldn’t this story have been titled “Snow worries, mate”?
Posted by andycanuck on 2006 11 16 at 12:23 AM • permalinkWet dream….
Al Gore is in Sydney at present
Snows in Sydney
The Gorester has PJ (private jet) parked outside
Snow gets on wings
Snow weighs down plane
The Gorester’s idiot pilot tries to take off
Gorester’s plane goes full throttle down runway with about 3 tons of snow on wings….
then I wake up - happens every time!Bonmot:
A Sulo wheelie bin? Is that where the Man from U.N.C.L.E. hides?Posted by Stop Continental Drift! on 2006 11 16 at 12:42 AM • permalinkThe Bracks Labor government is buggered now.
Labor earns Gore praise
FORMER US vice president Al Gore, now better known as an environmental activist, today praised Victoria’s effort to tackle climate change.Mr Gore met Victorian Premier Steve Bracks and Environment Minister John Thwaites for an hour today.
The politician turned activist filmmaker gave his endorsement to Labor’s initiatives on climate change as they fight for a third term in office at the November 25 Victorian election.Go Gore Go! Now if there ever was a kiss of death this would have to be it.
To His Excellency Al Gore, once Second President of United States:
My people have suffered greatly for many months from terrible heat and no rain. We have heard that you are a great shaman with powerful juju who can make frozen water fall on deserts with just the power of your words. Please help us, Excellency, and we will gift to you forty cattle and twenty young girls of your choosing.
With much hope,
M’buto N’dlawiki, chief of the Nimbasa people.To post 30: if the weather became like that - if it DIDN’T change - Al would go ballistic. It doesn’t matter what happens - it’s all evidence of climate change. Even climate stasis would be evidence of climate change, because it would be different from what we had before.
The trailer for the 1979 film ‘The Last Wave’ started with a creepy voice intoning, “Hasn’t the weather been strange lately?”
Very shrewd promotion - the weather is always ‘strange’. That is its proverbial characteristic, but the climate change hot gospelers can’t see it.
Posted by Charles Murton on 2006 11 16 at 01:19 AM • permalinkThe weather’s the same as it’s always been. It’s the people who changed.
Posted by Infidel Tiger on 2006 11 16 at 01:22 AM • permalink#44 - Crap, how am I going to get rid of all these mustard seeds now?
Posted by Crispytoast on 2006 11 16 at 01:38 AM • permalinkHey! Send Algore to Iraq, and freeze those terrorists to death. Frozen terrorists on a stick….yum!
Posted by The_Real_JeffS on 2006 11 16 at 02:09 AM • permalinkHmmmm.
#15 “I thought Americans had ‘asses’, not arses. “
We do. They just got elected!
ba-dum-bump!
Hey thanks folks! I’ll be at the local gin mill all week ....
Posted by memomachine on 2006 11 16 at 02:15 AM • permalinkSomewhere out there, an IT geek is hunkered down in a bomb shelter living off canned food because he thought Y2K was going to kill us all. Wait until he hears about climate change.
There are still adults who won’t make faces in case the wind changes. They all saw an Inconvenient Truth.
Posted by Infidel Tiger on 2006 11 16 at 02:17 AM • permalinkHmmm.
I hate to say this but in my town the guys picking up the garbage go and pickup the cans from the back of the house. So I haven’t, in years, done anything more than listen to the garbage guys drag the cans to the truck and then drag them back in the morning twice a week.
Then again ... I’m actually very happy to say that.
:P
Eat yer hearts out!
Posted by memomachine on 2006 11 16 at 02:22 AM • permalinkFrom The Daily Telegraph:
That’s Global Warming, capital-G, capital-W. Not the possible warming of the globe, but the apocalyptic religious hysteria not really seen in the Western world since the millennial sects of the 14th and 15th centuries.
With former US vice-president Al Gore the unlikely 21st-century version of the 15th-century Anabaptist Thomas Muentzer.
Even to the weird extent, just as Muentzer brought destruction and slaughter where he wandered—Gore, as documented by blogger Tim Blair, seems to bring the environmental equivalent with him. Sleet, rain and freezing winds.
Not so much a case of, if it’s Thursday Gore must have flown into Australia. But if it’s bitterly cold in near-summer Australia, Gore must have flown in.
Global Warming as millennial apocalyptic? You doubt it?
Suffer in ya jocks Algore.
*sings*
The snow is snowing
The wind is blowing
But I can weather the storm
What do I care how much it may storm
‘cause Al is saying it’s too warm . . .Heh. It’s so odd to read about snowstorms in November and then all the comments which are surprised- then I remember, oooh yeah, they have summer in November there. *shakes head* Ignorant colonial, me.
I’m buying an Al Gore scarecrow. My
arseass isn’t frozen enough yet.Posted by Tungsten Monk on 2006 11 16 at 02:53 AM • permalinkThe calendar on my office wall claims the “first day of winter” is December 22. So does my Dilbert desk calendar. Could Dilbert possibly be wrong???
=^0
Posted by Spiny Norman on 2006 11 16 at 03:13 AM • permalinkI just saw the weather god on the news.
How much plastic surgery do you reckon he’s had? His face doesn’t move much.
Aside from that, Karl Stefaovic asked him if the extreme and unusual cold spell we were having on the east coast of Aus was caused by
global warmingGlobal Warming. Gore’s answer was a magic dance of, well, no answer at all, really.His face doesn’t move much
Personality Deficit Syndrome, maybe, kae.
Al has never been notorious for his sparkling wit and charisma.Posted by SwinishCapitalist on 2006 11 16 at 04:54 AM • permalinkThe worse November snowfall 1 - 1,000,000 years! (Lancet)
Posted by curious george on 2006 11 16 at 05:09 AM • permalinkAl Gore - starring in “the iceman cometh”
Posted by curious george on 2006 11 16 at 06:27 AM • permalinkOT. Had a run in with the Mafia recently. They didn’t put a horse head in my bed, thank God, but I did find a small rodent under the covers. I considered it a Gerbil Warning.
Posted by flying pigs over mecca on 2006 11 16 at 06:31 AM • permalink# 36: Tsunamis that travel 60 kilometers inland. That’s it, I’m moving to Kalgoorlie.
Global warming is reaching Kalgoorlie, too. My parents live there and told me all about the time when snow fell last year. Snow falls in Kalgoorlie
For the uninitiated, Kalgoorlie is 600km inland in the middle of a desert and has a wonderful economy based on gold, pubs and brothels. :)
Posted by Villeurbanne on 2006 11 16 at 07:08 AM • permalinkThe Gore Effect seems to tail off where he is not. In Halifax, Nova Scotia, yesterday it hit 16.9C which was somewhat above the normal of 7C. Hey, Al, stay in Australia!
Posted by Nova Scotia Mike on 2006 11 16 at 08:02 AM • permalinkHow come the colder countries seem to be the most scared of a little warming? It seems the further you go away from the equator, the greater the hysteria about warming. We spent a month driving around Sweden last year, in the middle of their summer, and the highest the temperature we experienced was 22C. But man are those guys hot for Warming. They never quite got Jesus in Sweden but they sure got Global Warming. And Global Warming hysteria is just as bad in bloody New Zealand and Canada. All places that could do with more heat.
o/t A 27 year old British political(labour) activist with a “glittering career ahead of him”, described as a champion of PEACE and GOODWILL -who was in the U.S. to work for Mark Warner’s 2008 Campaign - died when his throat was slashed by a 15 yr old boy and two older men and a woman in Georgetown.
The victim had completed a Masters Degree in Diplomacy at London’s School of Oriental and African Studies. He was initially robbed but died while protecting his female companion from a sexual assault.
There’s a lesson in there somewhere.``[Kalgoorlie has] a wonderful economy based on gold, pubs and brothels.’‘
Sounds like Alaska in the 1890’s. Maybe Mother Gaia meant the snow for Anchorage, but got confused and wandered off course. She’s getting pretty long in the tooth after all, and I’m sure her memory and sense of direction aren’t what they were.
JoeJr, I would *love* a summer where it never got any higher than 22C (I speak Fahrenheit so I’m assuming this is around 75 - 80 F). Not at the price of moving to Sweden though.
Posted by Sonetka's Mom on 2006 11 16 at 08:57 AM • permalinkI quote the geat Michael Crichton from State of Fear page 670.
...And even today, after five billion years, our planet remains amazingly active. We have five hundred volcanoes, and an erruption every two weeks. Earthquakes are continuous: a million and a half a year, a moderate Richter 5 quake every six hours, a big earthquake every ten days. Tsunamis race across the Pacific Ocean every three months. Our atmosphere is as violent as the land beneath it. At any moment there are over one thousand five hundred electrical storms across the planet. Eleven lightning bolts strike the ground each second. A tornado tears across the sruface every six hours. And every four days, a giant cyclonic storm, hundreds of miles in diameter, spins over the ocean and wreaks havoc on the land. The nasty little apes that call themselves human beings can do nothing except run and hide. For these same apes to imagine they can stabilize this atmoshpere is arrogant beyond belief. The can’t control the climate. The reality is, they run from the storms.
#36 I couldn’t get the link, but assume it was the usual ‘Auusies will die from Tsunami’ crap. Basic geolology or geography shows that we have either too shallow waters or too many reefs to make tsunamis a serious threat. Anti developers in Darwin are arguing that a proposed resort on the beach will be in danger from a tsunami. Tidal surge from a cyclone sure, but that accounts for half of Darwin. Tsumani? The sea around here is so shallow that when the climate change occurs (which is obviously going to be an Ice Age - at least while Gore is around) I’ll be able to visit Bali in a half decent 4 wheel drive! This is the curse of media hype without education. Most people didn’t know what a Tsunami was until boxing day 2004. Oh, and to dig at the media again: they described small tsunamis hitting Japan today. A small tsunami is a WAVE you ignorant bastards!
#80 Saw another interview where Gore said ‘yes’ to the cold snap being global warmening. Next shot was a meteorologist saying that it was due to an antarctic storm and had nothing to do with global warmening. My money’s on Gore being right though. Well, he has his own jet, so he must know what he’s talking about. The other guy only has a degree in space rocks, right?
#97 Justin
A small tsunami is a WAVE you ignorant bastards!
A large tsunami is a wave, too (BTW, ‘nami’ means wave in Japanese). However, tsunami, whether large or small, are different from normal waves, most notably in having extremely long periods. The media was right on this one.
Posted by flying pigs over mecca on 2006 11 16 at 09:54 AM • permalink#99 Justin. I very much agree with you on My Media Question.
Posted by flying pigs over mecca on 2006 11 16 at 10:08 AM • permalinkBeen thunkin’! The etymology of tsunami is specific to the destructive capability of the wave. That is to say that if an earthquake triggered a wave that did no damage, the fisherfolk would have had no idea that one had even occured. The news report was quick on using tsunami more for it’s shock value (‘A tsunami threatened Japan today…...however….’). It’s like climate change. Cyclone Monica last year, more destructive than Tracey, must be climate change. Forget that these events are thirty odd years appart and generally happen on that time scale. Personally I think that the use of the word tsunami for a wave that has no destructive capability it a stretch.
Anyone watch Lateline? Treasurer Peter Costello was on - if I hear Kyoto whatever again I’m going to scream
Mr Costello did point out the unfairness of the present Kyoto thingie - the exclusion of India, China etc
I think all these climate change activists/terrorists just want us to die rather than live as best we can in our prosperous civilised Western countries
And has Algore gone home yet? Has he trained those little Gore luvvies yet? I want my warm weather back pleeeease
Posted by aussiemagpie on 2006 11 16 at 10:25 AM • permalink#106 justin
Exactly - eyes glaze over
However if one good thing comes from this - poeple might be tempted to go to Japan and see Kyoto
Kyoto is a beautiful city - the old part
The Golden Temple is just magnificent
Posted by aussiemagpie on 2006 11 16 at 10:34 AM • permalinkwas in early October 1941.
I blame Bush 41, myself.
Posted by andycanuck on 2006 11 16 at 10:53 AM • permalinkTsunamis are interesting as to physics, in that you get to see conservation laws in action. A ripple with huge wavelength from moving water slightly over the whole depth of the ocean has enormous amounts of energy from all the water in motion, and there’s a lot of it because of the large depth. When the wave encounters shallow water, where does the energy go? It steepens and magnifies the ripple into a huge thing to carry all that energy onshore.
The question is what sort of energy the earthquake put into the ocean, which depends on how it fractures.
Another example of long wavelength waves is tides
#103 Justin. It’s possible the media was aiming for sensationalism. I still maintain that tsunami is the correct word, regardless of the wave’s size, but acknowledge it is open to misuse.
#105 ausiemagpie. Related, I saw this: Emission claim from Campbell offends China
CHINA yesterday took offence at criticism of its record on greenhouse gas emissions, telling the delegation from Canberra that Australia’s emissions would be higher if it had a population of 1.3billion.
...
As China spelt out its aim to reduce energy consumption by 2010, delegation representative Gao Guangsheng reportedly twice pointed out that China’s population was 65 times the size of Australia’s, according to Greenpeace Australia spokeswoman Catherine Fitzpatrick, an observer at the session.
So what? The debate would be a lot more interesting if it focused on a country’s landmass instead of its population. China’s area is only slightly larger than Australia’s, yet its carbon emissions are almost ten times greater. If global warming is so important then how can China justify such a grossly large population? It’s OK for them to have 1.3 billion pollution causing humans and it’s an excuse for soiling the environment? The hypocrisy is astounding when they lecture Australia for its carbon emissions. Sure, there’s so real way they can reduce their population, but they have no moral authority to criticise Australia, especially given its environmentally friendly population size.
</rant>
Posted by flying pigs over mecca on 2006 11 16 at 11:12 AM • permalink#109 rhhardin
in that you get to see conservation laws in action
When I read this I had a sudden and horrible mental image of Bob Brown swallowing semen. Waste not want not. Just thought I’d share.
Posted by flying pigs over mecca on 2006 11 16 at 11:16 AM • permalink#110 Muzziezapper
From your link
It also came as the European Commission proposed that airline passengers on all flights arriving or departing from European Union airports pay up to $67 extra for a return ticket to cover the environmental damage caused by their flights.
This is an almighty tax ripoff all in the name of GW and governments around the world must be salivating at the prospect of all those extra $$$$ or whatever
As for China - they did try to limit the population with their one child policy which in turn led to the mass “disappearance” of female children
All this is social engineering - and as for emissions - there is still no proof that our human activity has any effect on our world’s climate
Posted by aussiemagpie on 2006 11 16 at 11:25 AM • permalink#112 aussiemagpie
As for China - they did try to limit the population with their one child policy which in turn led to the mass “disappearance” of female children
I sometimes wonder when China will start a war to deal with this. What else can it do with 30 million frustrated young men?
(BTW I’m not sure I agree with the ideas I expressed in my comment #110. (I probably didn’t make that very clear.) I just wanted to get them out there.)
Posted by flying pigs over mecca on 2006 11 16 at 11:32 AM • permalinkSeems Anonymous Wally disagrees with the climate change-deniers…
Posted by HisHineness on 2006 11 16 at 11:35 AM • permalink#115 MuzzieZapper
What else can it do with 30 million frustrated young men?
This is a huge problem over there - unforeseen by the social engineers of the time - who didn’t plan on Chinese couples getting rid of their girls in order to have one boy
As for your thoughts - goodonya for saying them - that’s all part of critical thinking isn’t it?
Posted by aussiemagpie on 2006 11 16 at 11:49 AM • permalinkO/T
Ding…ding…bong…doink!
Ms Pelosi is now our “Speaker”
From the “gee, what a surprise” department.
CDNC is reporting that affluent people are now very upbeat about the economy. Around August or September the “affluent” were all stocking up on freeze dried food, Smith & Wessons and wage continuation insurance. Now they are out there checking prices on private jet fractional ownerships. Que Pasa? Right! The election is over. How stupid of me.<rant concluded>
#120 murph
AHA - so you’re Murph from London then
BTW - I’ve only just discovered Tim Blair and Andrew Bolt - colour me old
Anyway good put down Murph
Posted by aussiemagpie on 2006 11 16 at 12:07 PM • permalinkMurph’s in London? Me too. You can’t turn on the TV in this place without having the ever-present hype of “climate change” jammed down your neck.
Posted by HisHineness on 2006 11 16 at 12:10 PM • permalinkMurph - I meant to say
Good put down on Mr Lefty’s site
Is this the irritating Mr Lefty who infests Andrew Bolt’s blog?
Posted by aussiemagpie on 2006 11 16 at 12:22 PM • permalink#123 HisHineness
Same here in OZ - too much now - the hysterical climate changers have taken over!
Time to cocoon I reckon - in the cave watching movies with excursions to sane blogs and of course work in between!
Posted by aussiemagpie on 2006 11 16 at 12:26 PM • permalink#126 mark from monroe
Extradition proceedings are happening as we speak to deport Algore for crimes against Aussie weather
Please welcome him back with open arms - we Down Here would like to NEVER see his face again
Then of course his disciples would just love for him to park his private jet here and never leave again - it’s LUV ALGORE for them
Bit like Beatlemania in the ‘60’s
Posted by aussiemagpie on 2006 11 16 at 12:41 PM • permalinkThe EU is trying to enforce fines on airlines for ‘poluting the skies’ Say hellow to the extortionist arm of the EU- ‘global dimming’ the huge cash cow in the sky- The U.K is fining homeowners whos homes don’t meet ‘global warming’ standards. This cyclical warming trend ... errr I mean global warming farce is a huge golden goose for those squawking about global destruction- it’s the biggest con job on this planet since the ‘global cooling’ ponsi scam null
#128 It depends on where you shove the thermometer, aaron_!
;^)Posted by andycanuck on 2006 11 16 at 04:20 PM • permalinkAre people forgetting that we had unseasonal heat waves here just a few weeks ago? I didn’t see anyone here saying they were evidence of Global warming. It looks like people are looking for reasons not to believe that Global warming is happening because they don’t like the things they would have to do to arrest it.
I don’t like them either but the Universe doesn’t care about what we like. More than that, what is happening is complicated and the evidence for and arguments about what is happening are not simple. If Global warming is real and we pretend that it isn’t then we hand control over to the Left who will use it as an excuse to do things that really have little to do with climate change. Take the initiative ourselves and we can strike a balance that minimizes the environmental and economic harm done. Doing no harm to either is not an available option.
So what would it require to convince you that Global warming is real and is largely human generated?
What degree of certainty would you require before acting?
Could the evidence that you want be obtained in time to act on it?
The evidence that I have seen convinces me. We have significantly increased the CO2 in the atmosphere. The Global average temperature has been increasing. The pattern of the changes has been what would be expected from greenhouse gas increases and the temperature increases over the past quarter century cannot be explained except by greenhouse gas forcing. What part of this argument do you doubt?
Posted by Lloyd Flack on 2006 11 16 at 05:54 PM • permalink#141
Lloyd, there’s a couple of things wrong with your argument.If Global warming is real
You aren’t convinced, why should I be? If it’s not real why take measures which mean nothing? (Other than fund research to keep trying to prove it and also pay money for some abstract idea such as ‘carbon credits’.)
So what would it require to convince you that Global warming is real and is
largely human generated?Nothing. Because it isn’t.
We have significantly increased
the CO2 in the atmosphere.No, “we” haven’t. This is unproven.
By all means, Lloyd, if you want to live in a cave with no electricty and walk everywhere, giving up all modern conveniences, appliances and other benefits, go right ahead. Just don’t expect me to.
The evidence that I have seen convinces me. We have significantly increased the CO2 in the atmosphere. The Global average temperature has been increasing. The pattern of the changes has been what would be expected from greenhouse gas increases and the temperature increases over the past quarter century cannot be explained except by greenhouse gas forcing. What part of this argument do you doubt?
Lloyd Flack - so if the statistical correlation between CO2 increase and temperature increase is in the order of 20% then I think it’s logical to doubt the argument. In fact, one could just as logically say that population has increased and temperature has increased therefore one has caused the other (in fact, the correlation is actually greater!). It’s a modern phenomenon that people create causal links where they don’t exist due to a misunderstanding of statistics and that’s why it has been easy for the enviroreligionists to gain ground in the public psyche.
Posted by Jack Lacton on 2006 11 16 at 06:14 PM • permalinkWhat part of this argument do you doubt?
o Anthropogenic.
Mars is warming. Jupiter’s developed a second Red Spot. T’aint Earthly CO2 doing that.
o That CO2 is a leading, and not trailing indicator.
Ice cores point to CO2 as a trailing indicator of warmth, which makes sense because cooler water can hold more gas in solution. As climate warmed, the oceans released more CO2. That also makes sense given the incredibly small impact CO2 has on climate compared to water vapor.
o That the consequences are as bad as they’re made out to be.
I can point to three definitely warmer periods in history that curiously coincide with the rise of prehistoric societies in North America. If Stone Age tribes—some without agriculture—could handle a warmer, wetter climate, what makes us think we can’t?
Then there’s the curious fact that some of the same people were touting the Coming Ice Age just a short while ago. Even more curious is the fact that their proposed solution for a DIFFERENT problem was the SAME THING—more power for them, less industrialization, and lower living standards for everyone but them.
Posted by Rob Crawford on 2006 11 16 at 06:16 PM • permalinkEven more curious is the fact that their proposed solution for a DIFFERENT problem was the SAME THING
That’s the beauty of “climate change” - it allows them to claim that those different problems (or rather, “problems”) are indeed the same one. I’m almost amazed that it took them 30 years to figure out this approach.
All in all, Rob’s post would be a pretty good summation of my position, too. I do accept that global temperatures have risen in recent decades; I don’t accept that it’s been largely anthropogenic in nature, nor do I accept the computer model projections that form the base for most of the current enviro-hysteria to have all that much validity at all. And really, if you take away all the dodgy press releases yapping about computer model X showing catastrophic rises in temperature by Y degrees, what’s left of the “climate change must be prevented NOW” case?
And if any Aussie ever tells me again that all we Poms talk about is the weather, i’m going to punch them.
Posted by pommygranate on 2006 11 16 at 07:20 PM • permalinkAre you trying to tell us that you’ve joined Johnny-come-lately’s crusade to “lead the world” on climate change? My you are avant garde aren’t you.
Posted by Miranda Divide on 2006 11 16 at 07:28 PM • permalinkJustin, it’s not possible for an earthquake to produce a tsunami of the size the researchers have found evidence of. It was almost certainly caused by a meteorite impact in the Indian ocean.
They also beg the question that current estimates of meteorite size/frequency are way out.
And on the subject of CO2 levels. The amount of warming any level of CO2 in the atmosphere produces as a result of the greenhouse effect is basic physics. The analogy I use is, it’s like insulating your roof space. Double the amount of insulation and you retain half the energy of the previous amount of insulation.
CO2 levels a thousand times higher than at present will produce somewhere between 0.2C and 0.4C of warming. That is the real Incovenient Truth of greenhouse gas emissions.
We gotta get Teletubby Al back to California. The ski lodges are hurtin’ for snow…
Posted by richard mcenroe on 2006 11 16 at 10:04 PM • permalinkMiranda Divide’s comment was sooooooo disappointing. PW, can you please come up with a better effort?
Thanks.
Posted by Stop Continental Drift! on 2006 11 16 at 10:27 PM • permalink#126, 126: I don’t quite understand you guys.
But, then, I’ve been to Moomba. Have you? A natural gas pumping station in the middle of what a pilot described to me as the “Great Australian Fuck All.” An airport whose only building contains the only pub, rows of gigantic pumps for the gas, and rows of barracks whose air conditioner compressors are hard to tell from the pipeline pumps. The nearest point where one might find vegetation over 10 cm. tall is 500 km. away.
The land would be incredibly fertile if there were only water available. So it seems to me Australians should be anxious to take hold of Al Gore and imprison him somewhere between Moomba and Ayers Rock. The resulting rainfall would shove the American Midwest entirely out of the running as the world’s breadbasket. C’mon, guys. Imagine the Nullarbor looking like the Mekong delta…
It’d work, I tell you. Yah, I know, bringing him his tofu would be irritating and demeaning, but don’t you have Timorese and Indonesians to press into service with suitable lashing? If not, I’m sure Paco could provide if asked nicely.
Plan for the future, guys. Forward Australia!
Regards,
RicI’ve been hearing people tell me “it’s hotter than it’s ever been” but these people are invariably transplants from half-frozen places up north like Michigan. When I tell them it was this hot and this hurricaney when I was a child they don’t believe me, but I grew up in Miami and it’s true. They’ve just never experienced living in a place where you have to keep your air-conditioning on most of the year. (And that increased use of air-conditioning—the average middle-class American goes from air-conditioned apartment ot air-conditioned car to air-conditioned office and back again—is the main cause of the “it’s never been so hot!” meme. That and the fact that the Baby Boomer women and their feminized men are both going through the menopause about now.)
Posted by Andrea Harris, Administrator on 2006 11 17 at 01:20 AM • permalink#164
I had a friend who thought that people who complained that it was hot were such whimps. She went to work every day, etc, and it wasn’t THAT hot.
Then she got a redundancy package and spent a summer at home, without airconditioning.
She felt the heat, and temperature wise it was no hotter than it had been when she was working (in airconditioning).Tim,
flew into Canberra at 3.15pm on Wednesday. Pilot told us en route that conditions in Canberra were “45 km/h winds from the west with snow showers in the area”.
There was a very heavy snow shower dumping its gear just west of Lake George and another over the outskirts of Belconnen (Canberra’s outer north-west).
I grew up in Canberra and am a “weather nut” (down there with train spotters) and if this had been July I would have thought it unusual.
Mid-November?
F***ing Je**s!Posted by Ben Haslem on 2006 11 17 at 01:38 AM • permalinkForgot to add.
Did I think this was evidence of climate change?
Nope. Snowed on the Brindabellas (mountains west of Canberra) and what is now Tuggeranong (southern Canberra) on Xmas day in 1967 (or was it ‘68).
Just the usual extremes of weather.
And Al Gore was in Sydney.Posted by Ben Haslem on 2006 11 17 at 01:42 AM • permalinkIs just me or does Lloyd Flack sound a lot like Single Malt?
Posted by Just Another Bloody Lawyer on 2006 11 17 at 07:31 AM • permalinkNo one has answered my questions. What would it take to change your mind about Global warming?
#142 Kae,
You misread what I wrote. I said that I was convinced that we were causing Global warming.It has been proved beyond reasonable doubt that we have significantly increased the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. We have ice cores going back 800,000 years. They have air bubbles trapped in the ice. They have been analyzed. The CO2 concentration is now the highest that it has been in the entire 800,000 year period. It has increased by about 30% over pre-industrial concentrations. The carbon isotope ratios reveal the source of the additional CO2. About three quarters of it has come from fossil fuels and the rest has come from land use changes, primarily forest clearing.
Yes there will be a cost to arresting greenhouse gas increases and we cannot do so immediately without causing massive economic damage. But if we do not do so eventually we will face even more economic damage and more important so will future generations. We face a difficult balancing act between present economic costs and future economic and environmental costs.
#143 Jack Lacton,
I think I didn’t put my argument as clearly as I should have. What I meant was to prove that we have caused an increase in Global temperatures by increasing the CO2 level we first have to prove that we have increased the CO2 level and that global average temperatures have risen and then we have to prove that the first has caused the second.
You are right. Correlation is not causation. I have seen three main arguments for attributing temperature rises to human influences.
1.There are claims that the recent temperature variation is too great to be natural. Note this is not a claim that current temperatures are necessarily higher than those in any paleoclimate reconstruction. It is a claim that the current rate of change is unprecedented. While true as far as I can tell I regard this as a less than convincing argument for attributing Global warming to human activity.
2.Models can be created that fit the temperature trends over the past century if greenhouse gas forcing is included as well as volcanic and Solar forcing. They cannot be created if only volcanic and Solar forcing are included. In particular without greenhouse gas forcing you cannot explain the temperature trends over the past thirty years. There has not been an increase in solar activity over this period. We know this from the data collected by Solar observation satellites.
3.For me the most convincing argument for attributing Global warming to greenhouse gas increases is the fingerprint of the temperature changes. The pattern of temperature changes is the one that would be expected for greenhouse gas forcing rather than for Solar forcing, The Stratosphere is cooling while everything below warms. The nights warm more than the days. Winters warm more than Summers. The Poles warm more than the Equator.What did you mean by a correlation of 20% between temperature and CO2 increases? Did you mean a correlation coefficient of 0.2 or did you mean that the CO2 increases explained 20% of the variation in temperature. Either way in a long noisy series of observations they would be reason to believe there was a real relationship.
Posted by Lloyd Flack on 2006 11 17 at 09:04 AM • permalink#144 Rob Crawford,
There isn’t any global warming on Mars. The South Polar Ice Cap has retreated over a period of three years. Hardly evidence of a global long term trend. It took a huge number of observations allover the World and over a long period to prove that average temperatures on Earth were rising. We don’t have that sort of data on Mars. And as I mentioned above it occurred in a period when the Solar energy output has not been increasing.It looks as if what is happening on Mars is a local rather than global phenomenon. Its climate is much less stable than that of Earth, mostly because of a lower thermal inertia. (It has a thinner atmosphere and no oceans.)
This is not the first time that fragmentary data from Mars has been over interpreted. Remember the face on Mars. Martial global warming is as real as the Bush plastic turkey. Perhaps that got sent to Mars.
Whether CO2 is a forcing or a feedback variable depends on circumstances. In the transitions between glacials and interglacials CO2 was a feedback variable and hence trailed temperature changes. Changes in CO2 were one of the things that amplified the temperature changes that orbital perturbations drove. We have injected a huge slug of CO2 into the atmosphere so in the present warming it is a forcing variable and hence leads temperature changes.
What were the three periods that you claim were warmer than the present and were they global or local warmings? I know of no periods in the current interglacial that we are certain had higher global average temperatures than the present.
The danger of global warming mostly comes from the speed. Changes that might be beneficial if they occurred over several centuries can be harmful if they occur over decades.
There was some speculation about the possibility of a new glacial starting soon. That is all that it was and it was mostly in the media not in scientific journals. No one was making definite predictions of a new glacial and I never heard of anyone recommending any course of action about it.
#152 Phil_B,
Yes the effect of increasing CO2 in the atmosphere is basic physics. In the absence of any feedbacks doubling the CO2 concentration should increase the Global average temperature by 1°C. Increase in water vapor would add a further 1°C. The main uncertainties are those about the effect of changes in cloud cover. The total effect of doubling CO2 is expected to be in increase in average temperature of about 3°C. The range of likely increases is from 1.5°C to 4.5°C.Posted by Lloyd Flack on 2006 11 17 at 09:05 AM • permalinkIs just me or does Lloyd Flack sound a lot like Single Malt?
#168, nah, Lloyd is far more boring and preachy.
Posted by Art Vandelay on 2006 11 17 at 09:44 AM • permalinkOh, wait, it’s not warmening ‘cos it’s only been happening for three years. Well, I’m sure that it could be extrapolated out so that the Martians could be blamed.
Or is it a by-product of Earth’s
global warmingclimate change? After all, we can affect the whole universe, or so we are told.First we were going to cool to death, now we are going to heat to death. Make up your bloody minds. The world was supposed to run out of petrol some years ago. The car would never catch on, nor would the computer.
The impact of humans on CO2 emissions has been calculated to be in the range of 4/5 of 5/8 of fuck all.
It aint happening anthropogenically.
http://www.adn.com/news/environment/warming/story/8417240p-8310749c.html
“the Arctic, long considered a bellwether of global warming, may be reverting in some ways to more normal conditions not seen since the 1970s”
Damn world, follow the fucking computer models.
Q. What will happen when all that floating ice melts and the non floating ice grows?
A. The sea level will drop.
Then the polar bears will invade New York via Canada and eat all the New York Times editors, so it’s all good.
Posted by Andrea Harris, Administrator on 2006 11 17 at 08:49 PM • permalinkNo one has answered my questions. What would it take to change your mind about Global warming?
What will it take to change your mind about the divinity of Christ? What will it take to change your mind about the existence of the soul? What will it take to change your mind about any religious question, which is what Global Warming is - a religion. Call it “scientific consensus” all you want, but when Global Warming believers act like religious believers, talk like religious believers, and reason like religious believers, then that’s just what I see them as. Anything that comes out of their mouths sounds indistinguishable from the nice Mormon boys who knock on my door.
What would it take to change your mind about Global warming?
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof. You ain’t got it.
Now, tell me - What would it take to change your mind about Global Warming? I’m guessing that reciting a litany of every other doomsday scenario in the last 30 years that never came to pass won’t do it, huh?
Martial global warming is as real as the Bush plastic turkey. Perhaps that got sent to Mars.
You lost any credibility you might have had with that facile remark, right there.
Changes in CO2 were one of the things that amplified the temperature changes that orbital perturbations drove.
By how much? Aren’t you admitting that “orbital perturbations” might be causing much of this global warming? You are at least admitting it as a factor.
Note this is not a claim that current temperatures are necessarily higher than those in any paleoclimate reconstruction. It is a claim that the current rate of change is unprecedented.
Huh? Isn’t this statement contradictory?
Changes that might be beneficial if they occurred over several centuries can be harmful if they occur over decades.
Okay. Given that “changes” have occurred multiple times over the millenia, and we’re not sure how fast they happened, what is your proof that these “changes” were harmful? Did they occur during a period of advanced civilization?
Hello?
I was trying find out why people were skeptical about anthropogenic Global warming and what might change their minds. I was a bit surprised by the stridency of some of the responses.
I’m sorry if I came off as preachy. That wasn’t my intention. Then misunderstandings of tone are a danger of any Internet communications. I just fear that wishful thinking about this problem will make the costs worse. That just as trying to pretend that we can avoid war with the Islamists will make the wars worse so trying to pretend that we won’t have to pay any regulatory and financial costs to ameliorate Global warming will only make those costs greater when they finally come due. And I’ll admit that what looks to me like willful blindness irks me especially from people that I agree with on other matters. I suppose I expect a bit more of them
Sorry if my comments were a bit long but climate is complicated and Jack and Rob raised reasonable points and deserved proper answers.
#176 Rob Read,
Thanks for the link. It shows some interesting negative feedbacks. Note that they don’t seem to be big enough to offer us much relief.When the shelf ice melts it stops constraining the land glaciers and they flow faster. No one is satisfied with the models of ice flow. It looks as if seal levels will rise faster than expected. To put this in perspective the predictions are for a 10cm to 90cm rise over the coming century, several meters later. In the medium term enough to be a nuisance, not a cause for panic.
#179 Dave S.,
To persuade me that Global warming will not be a significant problem you have to come up with an alternative explanation that explains the observations. It must contains negative feedbacks that will offset most of the warming effect of the CO2 and the positive feedbacks. It must make predictions that it satisfies better than the current models. Do you have one which explains why the Stratosphere is cooling while everything below warms?
#180 RebeccaH,
Why the shrill reaction to a mild quip? Most days I see comments here about Muslims that any reasonable Muslim would find offensive in addition to those criticisms that are deserved. And here we have people rightly sending up the Left for its inflated opinion of itself and consequent lack of a sense of humor.
The orbital wobbles that I referred to are the Milankovitch Cycles that are are believed to trigger the change between glacials and interglacials. At present they create a slow long term cooling trend that is far smaller than greenhouse, Solar or volcanic effects. Yes, eventually it would lead to another glacial in 40,000 years.
Read what I said again. I said that temperatures were rising more rapidly than they did over any other period of of similar length. Even if the Medieval Warm Period was as warm as today (It probably but not certainly wasn’t.) the rate of temperature change entering and leaving it were less than the current rate of temperature change. In any case I said that I think it is a poor argument for anthropogenic Global warming. It is evidence that something different is probably going on, not that it is due to human activity.
People are saying look on the good side of temperature changes. My biggest worry is about the changes in rainfall patterns and temperatures on agriculture and on the water supply to cities. We have enormous investments in infrastructure, housing etc. which depend on the current climate patterns. Do you really want future generations to pay for new cities because the old ones cannot get enough water?. Changes in agricultural patterns will leave some nations worse off while others gain more arable land. Do you want this to happen?
Posted by Lloyd Flack on 2006 11 18 at 07:41 PM • permalink
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Anyone who mentions the snow down south to me gets the same reply “Bloody Global Warming”.